(From the diaries with minor editing. Should Brad Miller take the plunge and challenge Dole next year? – promoted by James L.)
Cross posted from Dailykos
On the heels of a quick scoop in the Charlotte Observer last night was a full length article in the Raleigh News & Observer this morning. That story centered around Rep. Brad Miller (D) contemplating a run against Elizabeth Dole.
“I’m at least going to talk to folks in North Carolina and get a sense of what people are thinking,” Miller said Wednesday.
Following that, Public Policy Polling has released a matchup poll.
TO THE RESULTS!
Dole 44%
Miller 33%
Undecided 22%
Dole’s Job Approval numbers?
43 Approve
40 Dissaprove
Now with crosstabs (PDF!)
Numbers that can only improve:
Amongst Democrats Brad leads 48 to 26 with 26 undecided. Considering Liddy’s -20 approval rating amongst Dems, this number should shoot up very quickly.
30% of African Americans are currently undecided, and 26% say Dole. If Brad cant get above 75-90% support by election time I will literally eat my shoe.
Numbers that are already strong:
Dole is as about as high as can be expected amongst Republicans. 70-15. She wont get much of a boost from her base.
Brad already leads amongst independents, 38-33
As for Brad, and his big decision:
Brad is enjoying his time in the US House, so this is a difficult decision for him:
“There is plenty enough for me to say grace over,” Miller said. “But there is no doubt it would offer a chance to be more involved in more issues.”
However, he had this to say:
“I don’t think it will be an easy race for anybody,” Miller said. “I think a Democrat can win that race. I think the advantage I’d have — and any Democrat would have — is I will never have to be briefed on which state I represent in the Senate.“
Later in the article, Senator Dole’s strategist had this to say: “When you have someone like Senator Dole, who enjoys broad popularity” Oh really? Im just gonna post a few tiny little “anecdotes” now:
In January she was at 36 approve and 36 dissaprove
In a February poll, she was up to 43 approve and 31 dissaprove.
In a DSCC poll she managed a lofty 49 approve to 46 dissaprove rating, which was matched by her reelect numbers:
Looking ahead to the next election for U.S. senator, will you vote to reelect Elizabeth Dole, consider voting for someone else, or vote to replace Elizabeth Dole with someone new?
Reelect Dole 35%
Consider someone else 26%
Replace 23%
Depends 9%
Not sure 7%
So, what can you do to turn up the heat?
You can give money here.
You can contact the DSCC and ask them to help Brad!
And, you can contat Brad by emailing: brad (at) bradmiller (dot) org
Pretty wild.
To put it in perspective:
Miller just needs to expand his name ID, which will solidify the Dem base and black voters. If he can keep up that edge with independents, we should be in great shape to make this a first tier race.
resides in Charlotte, and she is ready to volunteer for any Democrat running against Dole. Dole has received a lot of unfavorable press, and many believe she never visits the state. This should be a fun race.
I am in Brads district. I voted and supported him when he was in the State Legislature. I contribute to Brads campaigns. Brad has had two poor opponents in the two times he has run for congress. A democrat turned republican plant lady(her business) who had only been elected in the chamber of commerce and a lunatic in this past election. Miller is a good guy. Millers appeal outside the district would be very very shallow. Dole would roll over him no matter if we are still surging in Iraq. If it isn’t going to be one of the Easleys, or Moore …Perdue will be the first female GOV in NC….ain’t gonna happen for the democrats unless Libby just doesn’t want it. The old broad has not lived in this state for years..her ties are strictly her very elderly mom in Salisbury but for some odd reason she does well. Must be the new face lift.